SP 500 Futures

This is an update to a post we did on 4/9/25

The chart is key to this analysis.

(ESM25) 
 

From 4/7/25,

The big plunge overnight took it to 23.6% back to the 2009 low at 4850.00.
Here is what is possible on a failure to get back above 38.2% back to the 2022 low at 5153.50 and what to look for if it does.

You can use 5153.50 as the swing point for the day and longer term. 
This is now 23.6% back to the ATH as well as a major Gann square. Not getting back above this level and taking out 4850.00 can send this market a lot lower. The first target is 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00, this is also a major Gann square. The longer term target area is 4075.00 to 4036.75, this is 38.2% back to the 2009 low, 78.6% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square.

Holding 4850.00 and then closing back above 5153.50 would be a very positive sign and a new ATH could eventually follow. As always the first real test will be 38.2% back at 5340.00, a failure to get above here keeps the short term trend negative and a new low can quickly follow. The longer term targets are 61.8% at 5652.00 and then the area of the 5850.25 major Gann square, 78.6% back to the ATH at 5877.00 and the 200 day average at 5896.00.

4/12/25

Monday's  low held 23.6% (4850.00) back to the 2009 low and the rally so far has taken out 38.2% back to the ATH at 5340.00. As wild as the trade has been holding 4850.00 can send this market back to a new ATH over time. Right now, by taking out 38.2% at 5340.00 it has turned the short term trend positive and we will now watch 38.2% back to Monday's low at 5265.00, you can use this as the swing point for the week.

The short term target is 61.8% of the same move at 5652.00. The longer term target area is the 5850.50 major Gann square and 78.6% of the same move at 5880.00.

Below 5265.00 the short term target is 78.6% back to the 4/7/25 low at 4980.00. Failing to hold 4850.00 can send this market a lot lower. The first target is 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00, this is also a major Gann square. The longer term target area is 4075.00 to 4036.75, this is 38.2% back to the 2009 low, 78.6% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square. 

We have done 46 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.

Here is the latest.
 

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